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| #146282 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 AM 16.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 800 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007 ...STRENGTHENING DEAN SPEEDS TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE... GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA FOR THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES... 665 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 510 MILES...820 KM...EAST OF MARTINIQUE. DEAN IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...13.5 N...53.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA |
