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| #146329 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:15 AM 16.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST. ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.7N 54.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W 95 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W 100 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W 105 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 120 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 80 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
