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| #146344 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:08 PM 16.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 200 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007 ... AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REACHES HURRICANE DEAN... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE... GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...EAST OF MARTINIQUE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...55.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE |
