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| #146553 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:43 AM 17.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 800 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...DEAN POUNDING MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA...HEADING FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE... DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT... ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR 50 MILES...80 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MARTINIQUE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 87 MPH...143 KM/HR...WHILE DOMINICA REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI |
