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| #146579 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 17.Aug.2007) TCMAT4 HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA... AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 62.6W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 62.6W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 62.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
