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| #146635 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 17.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES... 1355 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 260 MILES... 415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH DEAN TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI |
