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| #146673 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:05 PM 17.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 800 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES... 1290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES... 410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 130 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 946 MB...27.93 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
