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| #146704 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 17.Aug.2007) TCMAT4 HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007 AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 65.9W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..375NE 210SE 75SW 375NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 65.9W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 68.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 75.0W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 78.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 65.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
