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| #146705 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 17.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...CATEGORY FOUR DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES... 1210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES... 390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY SATURDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
