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| #146707 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 17.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007 ...CORRECTED ERRONEOUS INDICATOR OF INLAND AT 96 HOURS IN TABLE... DEAN HAS BEEN STEADILY INTENSIFYING TONIGHT. THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 138 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 124 KT AT THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...THE AIRCRAFT IS EQUIPPED WITH THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WHICH MEASURED WINDS AS STRONG AS 123 KT THIS EVENING. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN DROPPING...WITH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENT BEING 937 MB. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THE STORM HAS BECOME A GOOD BIT LARGER...AND WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. DEAN MIGHT ALSO HAVE A CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH NOAA BUOY 42059...LESS THAN 100 N MI DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...IN A FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS ON A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS NOTABLY DISAGREE AND HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN OUTLYING GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HOWEVER...HAS NOT CHANGED NOTICEABLY...SINCE THE MODELS MIGHT SHIFT BACK THE OTHER WAY. THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE IS INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES TYPICAL OF THOSE LONGER FORECAST RANGES. THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE ALSO REFLECT THESE UNCERTAINTIES. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE SIMILAR AT EACH LOCATION ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DIFFERENTIATE THE RISK OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS. THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF DEAN...GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND WARM WATERS AHEAD...WILL LIKELY BE CONTROLLED BY INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND/OR BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INTENSITY NEAR THE CATEGORY 4/5 THRESHOLD THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND IS ONLY LOWERED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO POTENTIAL PASSAGE OVER YUCATAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.9N 65.9W 125 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 68.4W 130 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.7W 135 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 75.0W 135 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 78.4W 135 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 110 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W 110 KT...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
