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| #146735 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 18.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2007 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR DEAN CONTINUES WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST OR ABOUT 660 MILES... 1065 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES... 390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND SOUTH OF HAITI TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH DEAN IN A FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 59 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...15.1 N...67.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
