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| #146778 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 18.Aug.2007) TCMAT4 HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1500 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007 AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 68.6W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..375NE 210SE 75SW 375NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 68.6W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 67.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 74.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 77.8W...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 81.4W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 68.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
