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| #147024 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 19.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007 ...DEAN STILL BATTERING JAMAICA... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND BELIZE... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD...AND IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL MOVE AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.31 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI. EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...78.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS |
