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| #147042 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:52 AM 20.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 200 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007 ...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TODAY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 2 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 240 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 926 MB...27.34 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES IN JAMAICA SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI. EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN |
