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| #147059 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 20.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN MOVING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES... 185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 495 MILES...795 KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES IN JAMAICA ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN |
