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| #147095 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 20.Aug.2007) TCMAT4 HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1500 UTC MON AUG 20 2007 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 350SE 275SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 81.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 85.1W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.9N 92.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 82.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
