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| #147239 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 21.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007 AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA...DEAN CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE SPARSELY-POPULATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EYE HAS FILLED AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT BASED ON THE DECAY COMPONENT OF THE SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS AS A HURRICANE...AND WILL HAVE ABOUT 18 HOURS OVER WATER TO REGAIN STRENGTH. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING WILL BE HARD TO GAUGE UNTIL WE SEE HOW MUCH OF THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECASTING THINKING. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 19.0N 89.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 19.4N 92.2W 85 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W 95 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 98.7W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
