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| #147278 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 21.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007 DEAN HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS AGAIN BASED ON TYPICAL DECAY RATES...AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE AROUND 00Z TO ASCERTAIN THE TRUE STRENGTH OF DEAN. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS TO BE LARGELY INTACT...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING TO BEGIN FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND DEAN COULD BE VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE TIME OF ITS LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT DECAY AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THIS ADVISORY. AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD END UP WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 280/17...AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO STEER DEAN ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE DIVERGENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A BIT OF JOG TO THE RIGHT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 19.4N 91.3W 70 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 19.8N 93.9W 85 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 20.5N 97.1W 95 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 23/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
