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| #147372 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 21.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007 DEAN APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A LARGE RAGGED EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED DEAN AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 979 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE SFMR HAS ONLY MEASURED 59 KNOTS SO FAR. SINCE DEEP CONVECTION IS RETURNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS...WHICH IS A BLEND OF BOTH MEASUREMENTS AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS. DEAN IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL BUT IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE. THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT CAYO ARCAS RECENTLY MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 KNOTS...GUSTS TO 63 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986.3 MB. NOAA BUOY 42055 IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 KNOTS AND A GUST TO 43 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 19.9N 93.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 20.7N 95.6W 85 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 21.4N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 23/1200Z 22.0N 102.0W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
