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| #147433 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 22.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1000 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007 ...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH...LANDFALL EXPECTED WITHIN A FEW HOURS... AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF COATZACOALCOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM...NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THIS TRACK...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ABOUT FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN VERACRUZ DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...20.6 N...96.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI |
