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| #148974 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 01.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007 THE LAST AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH THE STORM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT AND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER (SFMR) SHOWED 60 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AS HINTS OF AN EYE FEATURE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE UPPER-ENVIRONMENT AND THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE VERY WARM. IT IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY THE GFDL/HWRF ARE SO SLOW TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM. SO FAR...THE STATISTICAL MODELS HAVE DONE VERY WELL WITH THIS STORM...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. IT IS OF NOTE THAT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION... AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS...IS RATHER HIGH. FELIX HAS RESUMED A MOTION OF 280/16 AFTER A BRIEF WESTWARD JOG THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER FELIX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/HWRF ALLOWS A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR FLORIDA AND CAUSES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF FELIX IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN FELIX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH FROM SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 12.7N 65.3W 60 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.1N 67.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 13.8N 71.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 14.5N 74.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 15.2N 78.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 16.3N 83.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 17.5N 88.0W 110 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 92.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA |
