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| #149348 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 03.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007 THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT DATA SINCE 21Z...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS APPARENT IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. AN 18Z MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAD FORMED...AND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE INNER EYEWALL HAS DECAYED IN INFRARED IMAGES AND THE OUTER FEATURE IS NOW MORE PROMINENT. RAW OBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...UP TO T6.7...BUT I'M GUESSING THAT THE INNER CORE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOT YET RECOVERED FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...AND IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO BE REFLECTED IN THE WIND FIELD. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 115 KT...WITH SOME RE-STRENGTHENING EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE HURRICANE AROUND 05Z. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17...AS FELIX CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS RIDGING AHEAD OF FELIX AND SO SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE RIDGING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP FELIX BASICALLY ON TRACK. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS FELIX OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH ONLY THE 12Z UKMET AND 18Z NOGAPS TAKING FELIX BACK OVER WATER. THE 18Z UKMET...WHICH IS AVAILABLE ONLY OUT TO 48 HOURS...IS ALSO A LITTLE SOUTH OF ITS EARLIER RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOW KEEPS FELIX ENTIRELY OVER LAND. AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SHARPLY DOWNWARD AFTER 12 HOURS...AND IF THE TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF FELIX IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 14.4N 81.1W 115 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 14.6N 83.5W 125 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/0000Z 15.1N 85.9W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/1200Z 15.7N 88.1W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 06/0000Z 16.4N 90.2W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0000Z 18.0N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/0000Z 19.5N 97.5W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
