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| #149375 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 04.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007 AFTER COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT LAST NIGHT...FELIX HAS AGAIN STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...REPORTED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...HAS FALLEN TO 939 MB. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WAS 148 KT...CORRESPONDING TO 133 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LOW-LAYER MEAN WIND OF A DROPSONDE PROFILE WAS 132 KT. ANOTHER DROPSONDE REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 147 KT...BUT THAT IS NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN STEADILY BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE...INCLUDING IN THE FEW IMAGES SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 07Z. SINCE THE PRESSURE AND WIND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE INDICATING STRENGTHENING...AND GIVEN THAT OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES ARE APPROACHING 7.0...FELIX COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FELIX CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD BUT APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN A LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 270/14. THE EYE IS ONLY ABOUT THREE HOURS FROM MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH HONDURAS. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...SO A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH A SLOW BEND TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND GFS OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT DOES NOT FOLLOW THOSE MODELS IN LATER BRINGING FELIX OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GIVEN THAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST...AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...BUT IS A LITTLE LOWER DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF FELIX. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE...THAT THIS WILL NOT BE JUST A COASTAL EVENT. VERY HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS OR DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING'S LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 14.3N 82.5W 135 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 14.3N 84.5W 85 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/0600Z 14.5N 86.6W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/1800Z 14.9N 88.7W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 06/0600Z 15.4N 90.7W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0600Z 16.5N 94.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
