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| #149403 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 04.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007 FELIX IS NOW INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE ESTIMATED LANDFALL INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE IS 140 KT. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED 135 KT AT AROUND 07Z...AND AFTER THAT TIME THE EYE BECAME MORE DISTINCT AND THE SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS COOLED...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OF 0.3. CURRENT INTENSITY AND CENTRAL PRESSURE ARE BASED ON STANDARD INLAND WEAKENING AND FILLING RATES OVER THE 3 HOURS SINCE LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER EXTREMELY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO THE RATE OF WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE MORE RAPID THAN INDICATED BY THE STANDARD INLAND DECAY MODEL. THE MAJOR CONCERN NOW SHIFTS TO THE THREAT OF TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.3N 83.9W 105 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 14.3N 85.7W 60 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/1200Z 14.5N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 06/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
