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| #149445 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 04.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007 FELIX CONTINUES ITS TREK OVER LAND AND THE CENTER IS NOW APPROACHING THE HONDURAS BORDER. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED QUITE WELL ORGANIZED UP TO THIS TIME AND THERE ARE STILL SOME IMPRESSIVE SPIRAL BANDS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING SOME FORMIDABLE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW. MY INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HONDURAS' HIGH MOUNTAINS. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD WOBBLE EARLIER TODAY...THE MOTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY WESTWARD...AROUND 270/12. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH JUST A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. THE MAJOR CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE STEEP TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE RESULTING FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 25 INCHES. THEREFORE...PERSONS LOCATED IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 14.2N 85.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 14.3N 86.7W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/1800Z 14.6N 88.9W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 06/0600Z 15.0N 91.0W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
