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| #150027 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 09.Sep.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007 PEAK 925 MB WINDS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING GABRIELLE WERE 53 KT IN THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED BY 30 NMI OR MORE FROM THE VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL ROTATION IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...ON THE FIX MADE JUST A MOMENT AGO...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA SUGGESTED THAT A NEW CENTER MIGHT BE FORMING WITHIN THE CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE SOME STRENGTHENING...MAKING GABRIELLE A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM AT LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/9. ALTHOUGH A MODEST WESTWARD JUMP IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING IF THE CENTER REFORMS...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY...AND THEN BE CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING WESTERLIES AFTER THAT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH LANDFALL OVER THE OUTER BANKS...BUT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AFTER RECURVATURE TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 34.0N 76.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 35.3N 76.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 36.6N 74.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 39.2N 69.6W 35 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME |
