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| #150042 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:46 AM 09.Sep.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007 REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GABRIELLE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT ABOUT 2 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH HAS REFORMED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION OBERSERVED OVERNIGHT. THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MESOSCALE VORTEX COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE GABRIELLE MAKES LANDFALL...IT HAS PERSISTED AND BUILT DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ASSUME THAT THESE TRENDS COULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 55 KT...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE INCREASED WINDS EXTEND ONLY A FEW MILES FROM THE CENTER. A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE 12 HOUR FORECAST POINT...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1200Z 34.2N 76.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 35.3N 76.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 36.6N 74.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 39.2N 69.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
