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| #150154 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 09.Sep.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007 SATELLITE AND WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT GABRIELLE IS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH ANY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE STORM HAS EMERGED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND WAS FIXED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER...FINDING 42 KT MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM FRISCO PIER SUGGEST THAT 40 KT REMAINS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH A CONTINUATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF WARM WATER REMAINING IN THE STORM'S PATH...SOME WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AND IS SHOWN IN THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM AND MAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...GABRIELLE COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE MERGING WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN A FEW DAYS. THE MOTION HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND IS ESTIMATED NEAR 035/9. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST THE SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BEYOND 48 HOURS... THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF GABRIELLE REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO BE SEPARATE FROM THE LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BUT TO REMAIN A WEAK SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 36.3N 75.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 37.2N 73.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 38.3N 70.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 39.5N 67.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 41.0N 62.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH |
