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| #150181 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 10.Sep.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007 500 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 SATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE REMAINS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RECENTLY MOVED JUST NORTH OF BUOY 44014 WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...GABRIELLE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ESSENTIALLY TAKES GABRIELLE ALONG THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. SINCE ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER WARMER WATERS...INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES FORM WOULD LIKELY BE QUICKLY SHEARED OFF AS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONG ZONAL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS GABRIELLE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR 2 DAYS AT WHICH TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A STRONGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REFORM SOON...GABRIELLE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING OR GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 37.0N 74.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 37.8N 72.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 40.4N 65.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 42.3N 60.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME |
