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| #150209 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 10.Sep.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER.... NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS NOT ALLOWED THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ACQUIRE MUCH CURVATURE. A 1026 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 25-30 KT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. GABRIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE EASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A LONGER-TERM MOTION YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/11. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL MOTION. THE NEW TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE GFS TRACK. GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION UNTIL IT MERGES WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT ABLE TO GENERATE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED...IT MAY NOT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THAT LONG. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 37.1N 73.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 37.9N 71.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 39.3N 67.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 41.1N 62.9W 30 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
