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| #150251 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 10.Sep.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007 500 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE LESS DEFINED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. GABRIELLE HAS ACCELERATED AND CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 075/15 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST WAS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL MOTION. THE NEW TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT GABRIELLE WILL BE ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 36-48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS GABRIELLE AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT ABLE TO GENERATE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED...IT MAY NOT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THAT LONG. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 37.6N 71.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 38.1N 68.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 39.4N 64.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 41.4N 59.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
