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| #150596 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 AM 13.Sep.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007 500 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007 THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND AROUND 0700 UTC THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION...AND ON THE FINAL LEG OUT A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL...850 MB...WIND OF 98 KT WAS REPORTED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...OR AROUND 75 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986 MB. SINCE LANDFALL... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED AN IMPRESSIVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE STRONGEST BAND OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND HUMBERTO WILL NOW BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/7. HUMBERTO IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP HUMBERTO OR ITS REMNANTS LINGERING AROUND THE EAST CENTRAL GULF COAST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS SCENARIO COULD POSE A SERIOUS RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE REMAINING HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED OR LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.9N 94.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 30.9N 93.5W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 14/0600Z 32.2N 92.0W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 14/1800Z 32.7N 90.2W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 15/0600Z 32.3N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA |
