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| #150637 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 13.Sep.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007 DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE PUSHES FARTHER INLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST...AND SO THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ARE STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. THIS IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH COLLECTIVELY HAVE HAD A LEFT BIAS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48 HOURS. BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 30.6N 93.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 31.6N 91.7W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 14/1200Z 32.6N 89.8W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 15/0000Z 33.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
