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| #150689 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 13.Sep.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007 500 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE LAKE CHARLES AND FORT POLK WSR-88D RADARS SHOW THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE CYCLONE IS ENCOUNTERING INCREASING WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THUS...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN ABOUT 48 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 040/10. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...AND THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO TO TURN SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 36 HR...POSSIBLY RE-EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...IT IS LIKELY THE REMNANTS WILL BE TOO WEAK TO RE-GENERATE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HUMBERTO BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 31.4N 92.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 32.3N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 14/1800Z 32.9N 88.6W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 15/0600Z 32.9N 86.4W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
