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| #150775 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 14.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007 FIXES FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IS CURRENTLY ON A RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID IS CLOSER TO CONVECTION. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE PLANE...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST SINCE INGRID IS HEADING TOWARD A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALREADY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ARE IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE...OR AS IT HAS BEEN SAID FOR YEARS IN THE SATELLITE JARGON...A DAGGER THROUGH THE HEART. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INGRID WILL NOT LAST THROUGH FIVE DAYS. IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DETERIORATE SINCE THIS MORNING'S CLASSIFICATIONS. INGRID IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THESE CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS A MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST OF INGRID. THIS LOW WILL PROBABLY FORCE THE CYCLONE OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH IS BOUNDED BY THE NOGAPS TO THE NORTH AND BY THE UK TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.2N 50.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 50.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 52.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 53.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 18.5N 55.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 57.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 21.5N 59.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 23.0N 61.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
