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| #151137 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 16.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007 AFTER BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF INGRID HAS AGAIN DETERIORATED. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE RAGGED...DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED...AND THE LOW CLOUD LINES DEPICTING THE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME INDISTINCT. MOREOVER...A NUMBER OF ARC CLOUDS...IMPLYING LOW-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...ARE SEEN EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE. WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH MAKES SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. INDEED IF THE CURRENT DISORGANIZING TREND CONTINUES...INGRID WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO EVOLVE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...IF INGRID SURVIVES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT COULD BEGIN TO RESTRENGTHEN IN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATEST LGEM AND HWRF GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME FRAME. ALTERNATIVELY THE GFDL NOW DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND AND THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN LOCATION ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/9. THE STEERING CURRENTS FOR INGRID ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 3-4 DAYS MIGHT BE JUST A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE A DIRECT INFLUENCE ON INGRID'S MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED TO LESS THAN 5 KT LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND IS NOT FAR FROM THE CONU DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT OF OUR FORECAST TRACK. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO FLY A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THE CYCLONE AROUND 0000 UTC AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 17.4N 58.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.8N 59.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 61.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 19.3N 61.9W 30 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 20.2N 62.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 21.2N 63.7W 30 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 22.5N 65.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
