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| #151860 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 21.Sep.2007) TCPAT5 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
