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| #152138 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 23.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007 THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THAT CONVECTION HAD INITIALLY BEEN LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT HAS BEEN STEADILY WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVERNIGHT. VERY RECENTLY THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHERE SOME LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING SIGNATURES HAVE EVEN BEEN DETECTED. TAFB PROVIDED A TROPICAL DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.0...WHILE THE SAB CLASSIFICATION WAS SUBTROPICAL 2.5. THE CYCLONE FELL IN THE GAP BETWEEN QUIKSCAT PASSES ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...AND DATA FROM A NEW OVERPASS HAS NOT YET ARRIVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED SUBTROPICAL FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL WELL-INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND SINCE THE CONVECTION IS STILL A BIT DISTANT FROM THE CENTER. THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY GAINING MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...TRAPPED WITHIN A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW. ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL CHANGE SOON...HOWEVER...AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OVER ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT LARGER SYSTEM WILL PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES ON MODEL GUIDANCE THAT IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE ABSORBED IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING OVER SSTS NEAR 24 CELSIUS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH 40 KT BEFORE TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 36.2N 46.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 36.7N 46.1W 35 KT...TROPICAL 24HR VT 24/0600Z 38.7N 45.3W 40 KT...TROPICAL 36HR VT 24/1800Z 42.5N 42.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
