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| #152513 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 26.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007 500 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 26 KT AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1500 FT...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007-1008 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE ON CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND THE CENTER ABOUT 40 NM MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THIS IS MOTION AND HOW MUCH IS REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 180/3. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL-SCALE LOOPING OF THE CENTER. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW A SOUTHWARD MOTION...WHILE THE UKMET AND HWRF MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES BY SHOWING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 24 HR...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HR...ABOUT A DAY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION...ALLOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE SYSTEM WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL....AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING TO 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. SHOULD THE DEPRESSION STAY OFFSHORE LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT COULD GET STRONGER THAN 45 KT BEFORE LAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 21.0N 95.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 20.8N 94.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 20.6N 94.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 20.3N 95.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 20.1N 96.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
