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| #152697 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 27.Sep.2007) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2007 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 47.3W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 140SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..170NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 47.3W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 46.8W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.7N 48.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.0N 50.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.0N 53.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 47.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA |
