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| #152782 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 27.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007 WHEN THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT LORENZO AROUND 1930Z... THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS FALLING AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2 TO 3 MB/HR. AT THAT TIME...LORENZO WAS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE THEN...LORENZO HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY VIGOROUS CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC OVER THE CENTER. THE PRESENTATION OF THE CENTER HAS ALSO IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY ON THE ALVARADO RADAR...WHICH NOW SHOWS A CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS...I HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE EARLIER DEEPENING TREND HAS ABATED...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. LORENZO STILL HAS SEVERAL HOURS LEFT OVER WATER TO DEEPEN FURTHER...AND A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AT LANDFALL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE HURRICANE IN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS BASIC TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE RIDGE AFTER LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH LORENZO IS A VERY SMALL HURRICANE...ITS SLOW MOTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 20.5N 96.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 20.6N 97.4W 75 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
