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| #152784 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 27.Sep.2007) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 49.5W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 49.5W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.7N 50.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.9N 52.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.0N 53.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.2N 54.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 23.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 49.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
