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| #152817 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 28.Sep.2007) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007 ...LORENZO BEGINNING TO WEAKEN INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO... AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING LORENZO FARTHER INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE CENTER OF LORENZO MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AS LORENZO PROCEEDS INLAND...AND THIS SMALL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL. TIDE LEVELS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...20.6 N...97.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
