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| #152859 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 28.Sep.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007 SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE HAS DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. A SHIP LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED 29 KNOTS. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH IN FACT MAKES THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MORE INFORMATION FROM GLOBAL MODELS AFTER THE 12Z RUN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 14.1N 26.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 14.4N 27.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 28.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 16.0N 30.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 17.0N 31.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 18.5N 34.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 21.0N 36.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 36.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
