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| #153174 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 30.Sep.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007 STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON MELISSA. AFTER MOST OF THE CONVECTION DISSIPATED ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...THE CYCLONE HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE SMALL PULSATING BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE EACH LASTED ABOUT 3 HOURS. AN 0818 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS-DEFINED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT WHATEVER CENTER REMAINS IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...REQUIRING A RELOCATION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 25 KT AND MELISSA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11. SINCE MELISSA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD MAINLY DUE TO THE RELOCATION...AND IS CLOSER TO THE HWRF AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE AS WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS MELISSA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED AND THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT GENERATE ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION...IT COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.1N 32.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 16.7N 34.3W 25 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 17.7N 36.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 18.8N 38.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 02/1200Z 20.2N 40.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/1200Z 23.5N 43.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
