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| #153223 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 30.Sep.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007 AS WAS THE CASE WITH INGRID...AND KAREN...WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ATLANTIC TO WEAKEN. MELISSA HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE FEW VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TODAY...EACH OF WHICH HAS LASTED ONLY A FEW HOURS. SINCE MELISSA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...IT NO LONGER CLASSIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE REMNANT LOW...IF IT SURVIVES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...MAY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 16.3N 34.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 16.7N 35.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 01/1800Z 17.7N 38.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 02/0600Z 18.9N 40.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 02/1800Z 20.5N 42.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
