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| #154691 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 11.Oct.2007) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152007 1100 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS EVENING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 25 AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS ONCE AGAIN IN THE QUIKSCAT GAP...BUT AMSU AND SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASSES HAVE BEEN HELPFUL IN FINDING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THE MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DECELERATING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/8 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES BY THE DEPRESSION TONIGHT....THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN PLAGUING THE SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER NORTHERLIES. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... IF NOT SOONER. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECELERATE AND MEANDER UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK....CLOSE TO THE 18Z UKMET SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 30.0N 49.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 48.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 30.1N 48.4W 25 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 30.4N 48.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 48.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
