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| #154741 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 AM 12.Oct.2007) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152007 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007 THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK-T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SOONER. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING EASTWARD ABOUT 2 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 30.1N 49.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 30.2N 48.9W 25 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.5N 49.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
