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| #156814 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 27.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007 ...PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
