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| #157035 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 29.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 ...CENTER OF NOEL ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST OF HAITI AS LIFE- THREATENING RAINS CONTINUE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 245 MILES ...390 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF HAITI DURING THE DAY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS NOEL INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS... PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...72.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
